Thursday, March 12, 2015

The euro has depreciated this week. The EURUSD is around 1.0, which means one dollar for one euro. EURUSD seems that it is going to break the 1.0 support. The ECB is still implementing QE. Inflation is low and other economic factors shows the EU is not out of the woods yet. It seems that the euro has more to depreciate. Next week Europe CPI numbers are posted and previous CPI was at -0.6, which is below ECB’s target.

The AUDUSD has deprecated as well and is expected to keep doing so. The RBA still planning to cut interest rates, the price of commodities are still down, and other economic factors show more depreciation for the AUDUSD.

USDJPY keeps appreciating and I’m hoping that next week, with the BoJ press conference, we can see some more movement.  JPY is expected to depreciate the most.

For the USD, it seems like it’s going to keep appreciating. The FED is expected to give a speech about their monetary policy when they post their interest rate and we can confirm where the trend is heading.

Volatility is expected for the week of 03/15/2015 and we are hoping we can keep making gains.

Demo Account

I decided to use the Demo Account instead of the Real Account as an example.

The goal for the Demo Account is from 50k to 500m.

Demo Account started with 50k and is now at 121k.

Demo Account Open Positions:

3/9/2015
310	EURUSD	Depreciation	Long Term
100	USDJPY	Appreciation	Long Term
200	AUDUSD	Depreciation	Short Term
105	EURAUD	Depreciation	Long Term
150	AUDJPY	Appreciation	Long Term
Account Balance	121,699.73	Equity	124,332.24

 

March 2015

Right now my real account consist of about 354 gain and 450 equity. I have 2 open positions of EURUSD – depreciation - long term, 2 open positions of EURAUD – depreciation - long term, and 1 open position of AUDUSD – depreciation - short term. I have a pending position for AUDJPY, USDJPY and increments on open positions.

For the short term I believe the AUD is going to depreciate, that is because the RBA is planning to cut overnight interest rates. This is for the short term. I may see some volatility with EURAUD, but I think my real account would be ok.

I am going to be posting updates like this:

march 7 Open positions	Pair	Trend	Time held
2	EURUSD	depreciation	long term
2	EURAUD	depreciation	long term
1	AUDUSD	depreciation	short term
gains	350	equity	450

To keep a history of my gains and losses, to see if I can make millions with 100 dollars in the FX market, how long does it take, and to answer other questions.

Now let’s start talking strategy

The EUR down. Why? Because of macroeconomics factors in Europe. The EU union has very low inflation. Lower commodity prices is helping in low inflation with other economic factors.  Low commodities are going to help keep inflation low not just In Europe, but all over the world.

Another main factor that is causing the euro to depreciate is the overnight interest rate. The Europeans are keeping their interest rate low while the US is expected to go up.

Another economic factor is the ECB’s QE program.

So, my strategy at the moment March 2015 is bullish on the dollar, bearish on the EUR, JPY, AUD, and MXN. I am also bullish on the British pound. I am more bullish on the dollar than on the British pound. I am more bearish on the euro than on the AUD, I am the most bearish on the JPY.

I will explain my strategy more in detail latter.