Friday, July 31, 2015

The US dollar still looks like is going to appreciate. It has been appreciating since my last post. Total gains and losses for Friday, July 31, 2015 = 167,848. That’s about +20k since Thursday, April 30, 2015, 5:31pm, PST = $147,437.95, about 6k a month.

In the past few days there has been a lot of volatility in the economy. Speculations of the FED interest rate hike, problems with Europe, and the slowdown in China has created high movements of capital. This high movement of capital creates volatility in the markets. This is shown by the high difference between highs and lows of different sectors of markets. One market sector is the securities exchange market like the S&P 500 and the Shanghais composite, which has shown high volatility.  Another one is the FDI which has also shown high numbers coming out of emerging markets and going to more advance markets.

All this capital that is moving around the world would find the more secure profit and with the FED increasing its interest rate it would create a demand for the US Dollar.

Commodities have been falling down as well. Leading the charge is gold along with commodities currencies like the Mexican peso, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, etc.

The RBA, which is Australian central bank, had said that the Australian dollar is over value compare to commodity prices and that a reduction of interest rate is possible. This is an indication that the pair AUDUSD would trend down and thus be able to make profit.

Jul 31, 2015, 5:15 p.m. EST, DXY = 97.19 and with a high probability of going higher.

Francaise

Vendredi, 31 Juillet, 2015

Le dollar américain ressemble encore va apprécier. Il a été l'appréciation depuis mon dernier post. Total des gains et des pertes pour le vendredi 31 Juillet, 2015 = 167 848. Voilà à peu près + 20k depuis jeudi 30 Avril 2015 17:31, PST = 147,437.95 $, soit environ 6k un mois.

Dans les derniers jours, il ya eu beaucoup de volatilité dans l'économie. Les spéculations de la hausse des taux d'intérêt de la Fed, les problèmes avec l'Europe, et le ralentissement en Chine a créé des mouvements de capitaux élevés. Cette forte circulation des capitaux crée la volatilité des marchés. Ceci est illustré par la grande différence entre les hauts et les bas des différents secteurs de marchés. Un secteur de marché est le marché d'échange de valeurs mobilières comme le S & P 500 et le composite Shanghais, qui a montré une forte volatilité. Un autre est l'IDE qui a également montré élevés numéros à sortir du les marchés émergents et d'aller à plus de marchés à l'avance.

Tout le capital qui se déplace à travers le monde va trouver un profit plus assurer, et avec le FED en augmentant son taux d'intérêt qu'elle créerait une demande pour le dollar américain.

Les matières premières ont été en train de tomber ainsi. Menant la charge est d'or avec des matières premières monnaies comme le peso mexicain, le dollar australien, dollar canadien, etc.

La RBA, qui est la Banque de réserve d'Australie, a déclaré que le dollar australien est élevé par rapport aux prix des produits de base et une réduction des taux d'intérêt est possible. Ceci est une indication que la paire AUDUSD aurait tendance à la baisse et donc être en mesure de faire des profits.

31 juillet 2015, 17:15 HNE, DXY = 97,19 et avec une forte probabilité d'aller plus haut.

Portuguese

Sexta-feira, julho 31, 2015

O dólar dos EUA ainda parece irão apreciar. Foi a apreciação desde o meu último post. Total de ganhos e perdas para sexta-feira, 31 julho, 2015 = 167 848. Este é de cerca de 20k + de quinta-feira, abril 30, 2015 17:31 PST = $ 147,437.95, cerca de 6k por mês.

Nos últimos dias, houve muita volatilidade na economia. Especulação de taxas mais elevadas de juros do Fed, problemas com a Europa, ea desaceleração na China criou movimentos elevados de capital. Esta forte fluxo de capitais cria volatilidade do mercado. Isto é ilustrado pelo grande diferença entre os altos e baixos dos diversos setores do mercado. Um setor do mercado é os títulos do mercado de comércio como a Shanghais composto S & P 500 e, que mostrou alta volatilidade. Outro é o IDE que também mostrou altos números fora dos mercados emergentes e mover-se para mais mercados com antecedência.

Todo o capital que se move ao redor do mundo vai encontrar um lucro mais seguro, e com a EDF aumentar a sua taxa de juro que criaria uma demanda para o dólar norte-americano.

Commodities têm caído também. Conduzindo a carga é ouro com moedas de commodities, como o peso mexicano, dólar australiano, dólar canadense, etc.

O RBA, que é o Banco da Reserva da Austrália, disse que o dólar australiano é elevado em comparação com os preços das commodities e uma redução das taxas de juro é possível.Esta é uma indicação de que o AUDUSD poderia tendência de baixa e, assim, ser capaz de fazer lucros.

31 de julho de 2015, 17:15 EST DXY = 97,19 e com uma alta probabilidade de ir mais alto.

Espanol

Viernes, 31 de julio 2015

El dólar todavía se ve que se apreciara. A subido desde mi último post. Total de ganancias y pérdidas para Viernes, 31 de julio 2015 = 167 848. Esto es mas de20k + de Jueves, 30 de abril 2015 17:31 PT = $ 147,437.95, sobre 6k por mes.

En los últimos días, hubo mucha volatilidad en la economía. La especulación de mayores tasas de interés de la Fed, los problemas de Europa y la desaceleración en China ha creado grandes movimientos de capitales. Esta fuerte flujo de capitales crea volatilidad del mercado. Esto se ilustra por la gran diferencia entre los altos y bajos de los distintos sectores del mercado. Un sector del mercado es el mercado de compraventa de valores como Shanghais compuesto S & P 500, que mostró una alta volatilidad. Otro es el IDE que también mostró un alto número de los mercados emergentes y mover a más mercados con antelación.

Todo el capital que se mueve alrededor del mundo encontrará una ganancia segura, y con el FED aumentará su tasa de interés podría crear una demanda para el dólar.

Commodities también han caído. Liderando la carga es el oro con las monedas de los productos básicos como el peso mexicano, el dólar australiano, dólar canadiense, etc.

El RBA, que es el Banco de la Reserva de Australia, dijo que el dólar australiano esta alto al comparacion de los precios de los productos básicos y una reducción de las tasas de interés es posible. Esto es una indicación de que el AUDUSD podría tendencia bajista, y por lo tanto ser capaz de obtener beneficios.

31 de julio 2015, 17:15 ET DXY = 97.19 y con una alta probabilidad para ir más alto.

The week of April 26th to May 1st is expected to be volatile.

Three major economies in the world are giving out important economic numbers.

On April 29^th, the US is giving out its Gross Domestic Product Annualized and is expected to be at 1.1%. That is lower than previous 2.2% from March 27^th. Latter on the day, the FED is expected to give it’s interest rate decision. Economist and investors are waiting for an increase in interest rate by the FED. As an economist, I am planning accordingly and going to invest with that in mind. If we get good numbers from GDP and an increase in the interest rate, it is going to make the US dollar appreciate. The pairs that I am focusing on are the EURUSD, USDJPY, and the AUDUSD. If the GDP numbers are not good and the FED decides to leave it’s interest rate at .25%, the US dollar is expected to depreciate.

The BoJ is giving it’s interest rate decision on April 29th and is expected to be at 0.1. The BoJ hasn’t said anything about increasing or lowering their interest rate. According to the BoJ economic plan, their interest rate is going to be left at 0.1 for the near and long term future. That is because the BoJ is still depreciating the yen to increase inflation. Japan was in deflation and has implemented economic policies to increase inflation and thus increase consumption. An increase in the interest rate would not help in increasing inflation, so the interest rate for Japan is expected to stay the same.

On April 30^th, German and Italian unemployment rate are going to be given. German unemployment rate is at 6.4% and is expected to stay at 6.4%. The German economy is one of the top performers in Europe. On the other hand, Italy’s unemployment rate is at 12.7%. There is no expectation for what the new unemployment rate is going to be for Italy, but it would not diverge much from it’s current rate of 12.7%. Latter on the day, the EU is giving out it’s CPI index and is expected to be at 0%. That is going to be 0.3% higher than previous CPI of -0.3%. This CPI numbers from Europe are not good. These are numbers of deflation in the economy. Japan was in the same situation until the implementation of QE and that is why the ECB has the same economic plan. QE has helped Japan get out of deflation and thus is expected to work for the Europeans as well. That means that the euro is expected to depreciate just like the yen did.

Total gains: $140,335. Manage to get $2,334.6 of gains since April 22. At the moment my gains from open positions are around -11,000. I am hoping that this week will see the USD pattern to reestablish and turning the -11k into positive. Open positions that are EURUSD - Short, EURAUD - Short, EURJPY - Short, USDJPY Long, AUDJPY Long, and AUDUSD - short. 

Selected prices for Wednesday, April 22, 2015 at 9:55pm EST.

EUR/USD: Buy: 1.07085 - Sell: 1.07082

AUD/USD: Buy: 0.77486 – Sell: 0.77482

USD/JPY: Buy: 119.935 – Sell: 119.932

USD/MXN: Buy 15.43567 – Sell: 15.42810

Since the beginning of April the US Dollar has been stuck in the high 90s. DXY, which measures the US dollar against ten major currencies, hit the 100 mark and bounce back down on the week of April 12th – April 19th.  At the moment 9:08PST of 4/22/15 DXY is at 98.14.

The US dollar is still bullish, but DXY seemed that it hit resistance at the 100 level. It is normal for currencies or human involve indices to hit resistance or support at a psychological level such as hundreds, tens, fives, etc. Having said that, it is wise to keep an open opinion on whether the trend has stop for a reversal. If the latter is the case, then we need to ask for how long or whether a bullish trend is appropriate.

It is my own personal believe that the USD has hit a resistance point, but the bullish trend still applies. This is because the FED is still planning to increase interest rate. Which historical data has showed that and increase in interest rate creates demand for the currency. The US economy is still doing better than the European. The ECB is still implementing QE, which would end by September 2015. Japan is still under QE, which will end in 2016. The US business cycle is at it’s expansion level. This creates an increase on investments in securities and thus an increase in foreign net investment in the US, which leads to a demand of the dollar.

For the immediate time it is my believed that the DXY will linger around the 90s or higher 90s.  If not, it is going to continue with its bullish trend. For the long term time it is my believed that the US dollar would continue its bullish trends until economic indicate otherwise.

For the week of April 19 – April 26, I’m looking out for new Zeeland is going to give its CPI, RBA is going to give its CPI, China is giving PMI, German and French are also giving PMI. With this information and other inflationary information from other countries I am going to gage whether the price of goods and services are still depreciating and invest accordingly.

Total Gains for April 22, 2015: 138,000.01 an increase of 5,747 from April 8^th which was the previous post. 

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

At 10:49 PST the U.S. Dollar index DXY is running at 97.81. It is down -0.09%.

This are selected rates at 10:52pst,

EUR/USD - 1.08143 sell, 1.08147 buy.

AUD/USD - 0.77032 sell, 1.08147 buy.

USD/JPY - 119.891 sell, 119.894 buy.

AUD/JPY - 92.354 sell, 92.354 buy. (Difference between the sell and buy prices is call the spread, notice that audjpy has a spread of 0. This is a good spot to place a trade if it is at a good position on the trend.)

The trends that I wrote before still stand. The EUR continues to look like a down trend with the USD an uptrend. The FED is still planning to increase interest rate the big question is when. By all cost, economists predict that in the near future. This will cause the US dollar to increase in value.

The ECB is till under QE. QE is expected to last until September 2016. That means the EUR has more to depreciate. People are looking for the interest gains. Interest gains are the least ‘riskier’ of investment. This will also cause the AUD and other emerging markets currencies with higher yields to appreciate. I would stay out of placing a trade with a higher yield currency against the USD. That is because the USD is expected to appreciate and that would make the other currency to depreciate. I would use other pairs like EUR or JPY against a higher yield currency.

Total Gains 2/1/14 - 4/8/15

Thursday, March 12, 2015

The euro has depreciated this week. The EURUSD is around 1.0, which means one dollar for one euro. EURUSD seems that it is going to break the 1.0 support. The ECB is still implementing QE. Inflation is low and other economic factors shows the EU is not out of the woods yet. It seems that the euro has more to depreciate. Next week Europe CPI numbers are posted and previous CPI was at -0.6, which is below ECB’s target.

The AUDUSD has deprecated as well and is expected to keep doing so. The RBA still planning to cut interest rates, the price of commodities are still down, and other economic factors show more depreciation for the AUDUSD.

USDJPY keeps appreciating and I’m hoping that next week, with the BoJ press conference, we can see some more movement.  JPY is expected to depreciate the most.

For the USD, it seems like it’s going to keep appreciating. The FED is expected to give a speech about their monetary policy when they post their interest rate and we can confirm where the trend is heading.

Volatility is expected for the week of 03/15/2015 and we are hoping we can keep making gains.

Demo Account

I decided to use the Demo Account instead of the Real Account as an example.

The goal for the Demo Account is from 50k to 500m.

Demo Account started with 50k and is now at 121k.

Demo Account Open Positions:

3/9/2015
310	EURUSD	Depreciation	Long Term
100	USDJPY	Appreciation	Long Term
200	AUDUSD	Depreciation	Short Term
105	EURAUD	Depreciation	Long Term
150	AUDJPY	Appreciation	Long Term
Account Balance	121,699.73	Equity	124,332.24

 

March 2015

Right now my real account consist of about 354 gain and 450 equity. I have 2 open positions of EURUSD – depreciation - long term, 2 open positions of EURAUD – depreciation - long term, and 1 open position of AUDUSD – depreciation - short term. I have a pending position for AUDJPY, USDJPY and increments on open positions.

For the short term I believe the AUD is going to depreciate, that is because the RBA is planning to cut overnight interest rates. This is for the short term. I may see some volatility with EURAUD, but I think my real account would be ok.

I am going to be posting updates like this:

march 7 Open positions	Pair	Trend	Time held
2	EURUSD	depreciation	long term
2	EURAUD	depreciation	long term
1	AUDUSD	depreciation	short term
gains	350	equity	450

To keep a history of my gains and losses, to see if I can make millions with 100 dollars in the FX market, how long does it take, and to answer other questions.

Now let’s start talking strategy

The EUR down. Why? Because of macroeconomics factors in Europe. The EU union has very low inflation. Lower commodity prices is helping in low inflation with other economic factors.  Low commodities are going to help keep inflation low not just In Europe, but all over the world.

Another main factor that is causing the euro to depreciate is the overnight interest rate. The Europeans are keeping their interest rate low while the US is expected to go up.

Another economic factor is the ECB’s QE program.

So, my strategy at the moment March 2015 is bullish on the dollar, bearish on the EUR, JPY, AUD, and MXN. I am also bullish on the British pound. I am more bullish on the dollar than on the British pound. I am more bearish on the euro than on the AUD, I am the most bearish on the JPY.

I will explain my strategy more in detail latter.